HIV/AIDS Estimates and Projections Viet Nam 2005-2010

Estimation and projection of HIV/AIDS plays an increasingly important role in the planning and evaluation of national HIV/AIDS programs. National programs need to know where the epidemic is currently concentrated to assist in directing their prevention efforts. They need estimates of future burden and impacts to anticipate prevention and care needs and to adequately plan for impact mitigation. And, increasingly, international bilateral and multilateral aid agencies are insisting countries show that their programs are making a difference as a condition of continued funding.

In concentrated epidemics, such as that in Vietnam, the estimation of HIV is not a straightforward process. While HIV surveillance data has been routinely collected since 1994 in Vietnam, the translation of surveillance results into estimates requires a careful review of what populations surveillance data represents and critical analysis of existing data from numerous other sources.